This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2021 | Current | 902 | 8.21 | 6.28 | 1.83 | ||
Estimated | 300 | 7.35 | 5.76 | 2.56 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
Description |
“You are Victor Lavel, a young ambitious journalist working for a major newspaper. It's the year 1900, the middle of the Belle Époque, and Paris flourishes. There are so many stories to cover, the Exposition Universelle, the Summer Olympics, the opening of the first metro station, but as a Lavel, a family famous for solving crimes since the Middle Ages, you are much more interested in murders, kidnappings, and robberies. Being a journalist helps you be among the first ones to know about them, and your wits often make you the first one to find the perpetrator.” |
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2021 | Lucky Duck Games | David Cicurel | Matijos Gebreselassie | Adventure | Components: Digital Hybrid – App/Website Required | Cooperative Game | ||
999 Games | Wojciech Grajkowski | Karolina Jędrzejak | Deduction | Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game | |||
Broadway Toys LTD | Mateusz Komada | Murder/Mystery | Crowdfunding: Spieleschmiede | Storytelling | ||||
Corax Games | Katarzyna Kosobucka | Puzzle | Misc: Limited replayability | Variable Player Powers | ||||
Gameology (Gameology Romania) | Aleksandra Wojtas | Misc: LongPack Games | ||||||
Gém Klub Kft. | Series: Chronicles of Crime – The Millennium | |||||||
Hobby World | ||||||||
TWOPLUS Games | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/302098
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
What games are similar to Chronicles of Crime: 1900? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Chronicles of Crime: 1900. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
The table below displays games with the most similar data to Chronicles of Crime: 1900. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 1.00 | 6.28 | 8.21 | 2.56 | 902 | ||
1 | 2020 | 0.94 | 6.71 | 7.88 | 2.12 | 2,310 | ||
2 | 2019 | 0.93 | 5.70 | 6.57 | 2.18 | 454 | ||
3 | 2019 | 0.93 | 5.66 | 6.71 | 2.00 | 303 | ||
4 | 2019 | 0.93 | 5.63 | 6.59 | 1.83 | 284 | ||
5 | 2017 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | 0.92 | 6.35 | 7.90 | 2.38 | 991 | |
6 | 2015 | 0.91 | 7.30 | 7.48 | 2.60 | 25,566 | ||
7 | 2017 | 0.90 | 6.11 | 6.70 | 2.91 | 1,822 | ||
8 | 2017 | 0.90 | 6.43 | 7.02 | 2.35 | 2,698 | ||
9 | 2020 | 0.90 | 6.33 | 7.10 | 1.87 | 1,879 | ||
10 | 2020 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.88 | 6.28 | 8.51 | 2.42 | 657 | |
11 | 2020 | 0.88 | 5.53 | 6.13 | 2.00 | 88 | ||
12 | 2020 | 0.88 | 5.61 | 6.89 | 2.00 | 158 | ||
13 | 2020 | 0.87 | 5.65 | 7.02 | 1.29 | 212 | ||
14 | 2017 | 0.87 | 6.54 | 7.18 | 2.13 | 2,818 | ||
15 | 2020 | 0.87 | 5.55 | 7.34 | 1.00 | 48 | ||
16 | 2020 | 0.87 | 5.58 | 7.19 | 1.00 | 92 | ||
17 | 2019 | 0.87 | 5.74 | 6.85 | 1.62 | 409 | ||
18 | 2018 | 0.86 | 5.60 | 6.05 | 2.17 | 452 | ||
19 | 2020 | 0.86 | 6.20 | 7.71 | 2.17 | 827 | ||
20 | 2019 | 0.86 | 5.57 | 6.64 | 2.25 | 115 | ||
21 | 2020 | 0.86 | 5.60 | 7.49 | 2.00 | 99 | ||
22 | 2019 | 0.85 | 5.53 | 5.70 | 1.33 | 372 | ||
23 | 1995 | 0.85 | 5.59 | 7.54 | 3.10 | 82 | ||
24 | 2019 | 0.85 | 5.61 | 6.01 | 1.09 | 491 | ||
25 | 2019 | 0.85 | 5.50 | 5.52 | 1.00 | 329 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
What games are similar to Chronicles of Crime: 1900 while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 6.28 | 1.00 | 6.28 | 8.21 | 2.56 | 902 | ||
1 | 2015 | 6.67 | 0.91 | 7.30 | 7.48 | 2.60 | 25,566 | ||
2 | 2020 | 6.28 | 0.94 | 6.71 | 7.88 | 2.12 | 2,310 | ||
3 | 2018 | 6.09 | 0.83 | 7.32 | 7.70 | 2.08 | 18,202 | ||
4 | 2017 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | 5.83 | 0.92 | 6.35 | 7.90 | 2.38 | 991 | |
5 | 2017 | 5.78 | 0.90 | 6.43 | 7.02 | 2.35 | 2,698 | ||
6 | 2017 | 5.70 | 0.87 | 6.54 | 7.18 | 2.13 | 2,818 | ||
7 | 2020 | 5.68 | 0.90 | 6.33 | 7.10 | 1.87 | 1,879 | ||
8 | 2018 | 5.63 | 0.83 | 6.82 | 7.70 | 2.26 | 2,672 | ||
9 | 2016 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 5.60 | 0.79 | 7.07 | 7.69 | 2.20 | 4,930 | |
10 | 2019 | 5.57 | 0.83 | 6.69 | 7.87 | 2.06 | 1,775 | ||
11 | 2017 | 5.51 | 0.90 | 6.11 | 6.70 | 2.91 | 1,822 | ||
12 | 2020 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 5.50 | 0.88 | 6.28 | 8.51 | 2.42 | 657 | |
13 | 2018 | 5.48 | 0.79 | 6.97 | 7.51 | 2.41 | 5,712 | ||
14 | 2020 | 5.32 | 0.86 | 6.20 | 7.71 | 2.17 | 827 | ||
15 | 2018 | 5.31 | 0.84 | 6.34 | 7.44 | 2.88 | 1,335 | ||
16 | 2012 | 5.29 | 0.76 | 6.95 | 7.17 | 2.76 | 16,825 | ||
17 | 2019 | 5.29 | 0.93 | 5.70 | 6.57 | 2.18 | 454 | ||
18 | 2020 | 5.25 | 0.84 | 6.23 | 7.78 | 2.18 | 822 | ||
19 | 2019 | 5.25 | 0.93 | 5.66 | 6.71 | 2.00 | 303 | ||
20 | 2017 | 5.24 | 0.84 | 6.28 | 7.03 | 2.50 | 1,793 | ||
21 | 2017 | 5.23 | 0.83 | 6.31 | 7.03 | 1.73 | 1,957 | ||
22 | 2019 | 5.21 | 0.93 | 5.63 | 6.59 | 1.83 | 284 | ||
23 | 2016 | 5.14 | 0.79 | 6.51 | 7.00 | 2.28 | 3,708 | ||
24 | 2018 | 5.12 | 0.84 | 6.13 | 7.06 | 2.50 | 1,172 | ||
25 | 2018 | 5.07 | 0.84 | 6.00 | 6.75 | 2.18 | 1,145 |
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.